UK military chief warns of Russian war threat to vital undersea telecom/internet connectivity cables.
Adm Tony Radakin says any attempt by submarines at damage would be treated as an ‘act of war’.
According to The Guardian, the head of the UK’s armed forces has warned that Russian submarine activity is threatening underwater cables that are crucial to communication systems around the world. Adm Tony Radakin said undersea cables that transmit Internet data are “the world’s real information system”, and added that any attempt to damage them could be considered an “act of war”. Speaking to The Times in his first interview since assuming the role, Sir Tony – a former head of the Royal Navy – said there had been a “phenomenal increase in Russian submarine and underwater activity” over the past 20 years.
He said that meant Moscow could “put at risk and potentially exploit the world’s real information system, which is undersea cables that go all around the world”. “That is where predominantly all the world’s information and traffic travels. Russia has grown the capability to put at threat those undersea cables and potentially exploit those undersea cables.” The navy has been tracking Russian submarine activity, with a collision between the HMS Northumberland and a Russian sub sparking speculation about cable-mapping activity. The collision in December 2020 was filmed by a documentary crew from Channel 5 who were working on a television series called Warship: Life At Sea.
In his interview, Radakin also said the UK needed to develop hypersonic missiles to keep up with the military competition. He highlighted Russia’s hypersonic and long-range missile capability as a threat and Britain’s comparative capabilities as a weakness. “We haven’t [got them] and we must have,” he said. Radakin said he had briefed ministers on Britain’s “military choices” if Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, but did not reveal any further information. The defence secretary, Ben Wallace, has previously said it would be “highly unlikely” the UK would send troops if an invasion occurred, while the Times reports cyber-attacks “could be an option”.
As the world waits for the next step in the Russian war, international telecom experts ponder the effects a possible war would have on the sector.
The main threat to telecom is that investors are hesitating to make financial commitments because they don’t know what the future holds. “Black-and-white situations investors can deal with. When things are grey, there’s indecision,” says Frank Dzubeck of Communications Network Architects. He says one banker told him he didn’t care which way the situation went, so long as someone did something. A rather cynical view, surely, but one that may reflect frustrations in the financial community.
One researcher thinks the uncertainty and fear generated by war could significantly set back the slow progress of recovery in the telecom market. “Worldwide economic recovery would stall, already-reduced expectations would be dealt another jolt by war,” says Lawrence Surtees, director of telecom and Internet research at IDC Canada. His firm has been modeling world disasters such as war threats into their forecasts since the September 11 attacks on the U.S. The worst-case scenarios are chilling, he says, particularly for equipment vendors.
“Investors ask, ‘Do we want to make investments now, without knowing the outcome?’ ” says Steve Kamman of CIBC World Markets. But he urges against confusing the ennui of the telecom downturn with the war threat: “It could be a convenient excuse not to focus on what’s going on in telecom, which has its own issues and problems… Take away the war situation and things wouldn’t be much different.” One European analyst thinks the telecom market won’t be as affected by military action as other sectors. “We think of telecoms as utility-like services,” says Bradley Bugg, analyst with Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. While overall economic conditions have an impact, he says it’s not as great as the impact on more cyclical segments, such as parts of the retail industry.
Still, analysts can’t ignore the possible negative effects a war could bring. “The impact on the telecom market will not be telecom-sector specific,” writes Jim Lawrence, program director at Stratecast Partners. While stressing that his views are personal and don’t reflect those of his employer, Lawrence doesn’t pull his punches: “Everyone will be hurt by World War III and the coming global depression.” Some analysts question whether the war would affect the ability of vendors to gain international telecom contracts.
“Nothing in our research has ever indicated that purchasing decisions are based on nationalism,” says Richard Webb, analyst of European networks and wireless LANs at Infonetics Research Inc. War could also hinder upcoming tradeshows and conferences, however, where multinational attendees may face transportation hindrances and others simply opt to stay home.
Most analysts interviewed for this article don’t see any positives emerging if a Russian war happens.
